Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Dak Prescott

DAL

QB7 · overall #61 · tier 2 · age 33

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Projected points

264

18.9/gm

Value over replacement

46

repl 250

Range

224–305

sd 40

Week

18.3

@ HOU

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

RE-EXPRESSED 22 Aug, same total, honest split. The 6 Aug row said '13.5 projected games at age 33; the availability spread is wider than the record supports' -- an argument about GAMES -- and then spent itself entirely on RATE, because his injury_games_mult is 1.0 so split_override had no damping to undo. That is the exact defect the `games` column exists to fix, and it inflated his rate to 19.59/g, above anything his record supports. Both factors are now stated. GAMES 14.0: he has played 42 of 51 across 2023-25 (17, 8, 17), which is 82% and 14.0 games, so the model's 13.5 was mildly low exactly as the original row argued. RATE 18.87/g: his own seasons at the model's QB decay of 0.80 (2025 18.93, 2024 15.82, 2023 20.70), rather than the 19.59 the rate-only override manufactured. 264.2 total, within 0.2 of what the row already delivered -- the answer barely moves, the CLAIM becomes checkable. No rank target: this is a claim about his two factors, not about where he should sit, so board_audit should not check him against one.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
505
Pass yards
3846
Pass TD
26.2
Carries
46
Rush yards
180
Rush TD
1.7
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
18.0
Games of history
54
Age multiplier
0.958
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.24
OL pass protection
+0.09
OL continuity
86%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.33
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
HOU,TB,GB
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
PHI,ARI,IND
After matchup
+0.23
Flip edge
-0.22
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.27

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

313.8

Per game

18.46

17-gm pace

314

Best / worst

31.0 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
17.8QB28213418800130
222.1QB63852361213170
312.0QB21314025112000
431.0QB1314031930121
528.3QB21829237407280
622.3QB52534261302-10
723.3QB8213026430570
86.6QB231931188026310
915.4QB182439250114340
1124.3QB32533268404-40
1227.1QB3233635421591
1320.6QB82739320213-20
1418.4QB133147376123140
1512.0QB25233829400120
1619.2QB112130244202140
1722.7QB81937307204240
180.7QB3671170002-10