Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Dak Prescott

DAL

QB7 · overall #61 · tier 2 · age 33

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Projected points

264

18.9/gm

Value over replacement

46

repl 250

Range

224–305

sd 40

Week

18.3

@ HOU

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

RE-EXPRESSED 22 Aug, same total, honest split. The 6 Aug row said '13.5 projected games at age 33; the availability spread is wider than the record supports' -- an argument about GAMES -- and then spent itself entirely on RATE, because his injury_games_mult is 1.0 so split_override had no damping to undo. That is the exact defect the `games` column exists to fix, and it inflated his rate to 19.59/g, above anything his record supports. Both factors are now stated. GAMES 14.0: he has played 42 of 51 across 2023-25 (17, 8, 17), which is 82% and 14.0 games, so the model's 13.5 was mildly low exactly as the original row argued. RATE 18.87/g: his own seasons at the model's QB decay of 0.80 (2025 18.93, 2024 15.82, 2023 20.70), rather than the 19.59 the rate-only override manufactured. 264.2 total, within 0.2 of what the row already delivered -- the answer barely moves, the CLAIM becomes checkable. No rank target: this is a claim about his two factors, not about where he should sit, so board_audit should not check him against one.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
36.1
Pass yards / game
275
Pass TD / game
1.87
Carries / game
3.3
Rush yards / game
13
Rush TD / game
0.12
Games projected
14.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
18.0
Games of history
54
Age multiplier
0.958
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.24
OL pass protection
+0.09
OL continuity
86%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.33
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
HOU,TB,GB
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
PHI,ARI,IND
After matchup
+0.23
Flip edge
-0.22
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.27

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

313.8

Per game

18.46

17-gm pace

314

Best / worst

31.0 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
17.8QB28213418800130
222.1QB63852361213170
312.0QB21314025112000
431.0QB1314031930121
528.3QB21829237407280
622.3QB52534261302-10
723.3QB8213026430570
86.6QB231931188026310
915.4QB182439250114340
1124.3QB32533268404-40
1227.1QB3233635421591
1320.6QB82739320213-20
1418.4QB133147376123140
1512.0QB25233829400120
1619.2QB112130244202140
1722.7QB81937307204240
180.7QB3671170002-10