DK Metcalf

To WR33 on 13 Aug, matching three independent drafter pools. RE-PRICED 3 Sep, 138.0 -> 129.6, because the board drifted out from under that claim and the claim was a RANK against those pools. He had reached WR25 against ADP 33, ECR 31, consensus 33 and Underdog 35 -- ABOVE all four, having been written to sit level with them. The number never moved; the board did, which is exactly the failure mode an absolute total written against a board that rebuilds four times a day is prone to. 129.6 over 14.0 games is 9.26/g, still a long way under his own 11.60 half-PPR/g, and under Sleeper's 152.3 -- so re-pricing toward the pools does not make this an aggressive cut, it restores the one that was intended. The band is dense here: eight ranks cost 8.4 points, against Xavier Worthy's eight ranks for 3.2 in the WR40s. That is why this one is worth re-pricing and his is not. Target column now states WR33 so the drift check watches it from here. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.