Cyrus Allen
KCROOKIE R5WR73 · overall #170 · tier 9 · age 23
Projected points
104
7.0/gm
Value over replacement
-7
repl 119
Range
86–122
sd 18
Week
2.9
@ LV
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-26
Raised to ADP at Matt's direction. Native WR265 on 0.91/g. The two markets DISAGREE about him -- drafters WR67 (ADP 174), ECR WR121 -- and this takes the drafters' side deliberately, on the football rather than on the split: he is a rookie in an ambiguous Kansas City room and the case for him is upside beyond the projection, which is what ADP prices and a point estimate structurally cannot. Mechanism, traced: capital 0.212 x immediacy x depth 0.473 = 0.076 -- a pick-176 rookie is priced small by the capital curve and then halved AGAIN for being fifth on the chart, which is what a pick-176 rookie IS. Those two inputs are not independent, and that compounding affects the whole late-rookie group rather than him alone.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 69
- Carries
- 1
- Receptions
- 45
- Rec yards
- 600
- Rush yards
- 6
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 3.6
- Total TD
- 3.6
- Games projected
- 14.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- –
- Games of history
- 0
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.7
- Projected plays / game
- 63.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- +0.13
- OL pass protection
- -0.04
- OL continuity
- 65%
- 2TE rate
- 41%
- 3WR rate
- 56%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.61
- Scheme creativity
- +0.04
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 55%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.80
- Top player's share
- 25%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- LV,LAC
- Window matchup
- +0.36
- Opponents after
- SEA,DEN,NYJ
- After matchup
- -0.24
- Flip edge
- +0.60
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.27
Last season game log
week by week
No 2025-season weekly record for Cyrus Allen — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.