Colston Loveland
CHITE3 · overall #57 · tier 1 · age 22
Projected points
160
10.2/gm
Value over replacement
50
repl 112
Range
118–203
sd 43
Week
5.5
vs NYJ
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read that we are too low on him. Both markets have him TE3 and the board had TE7. He is the case CLAUDE.md already records under the within-season trend work: his rookie year ran 5.12 targets a game full-season, 7.33 over the last six and 8.25 over the last four, and the model reaches 6.64 off draft capital, the depth chart and the second-year multiplier rather than a trend term -- machinery that is already firing. TE4 rather than TE3, because the +1.16 he already sits above his own single season is real and a one-year history is thin evidence to push further on.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 7.0
- Carries / game
- 0.1
- Receptions / game
- 5.0
- Rec yards / game
- 54
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.38
- Total TD / game
- 0.38
- Games projected
- 15.7
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 10.5
- Games of history
- 16
- Age multiplier
- 1.060
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.8
- Projected plays / game
- 62.5
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +1.36
- OL pass protection
- +1.05
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 36%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- +0.61
- Scheme creativity
- +0.58
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 54%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 33
- Effective contributors
- 2.04
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.35
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYJ,GB,ATL
- Window matchup
- +0.07
- Opponents after
- NE,SEA,TB
- After matchup
- +0.37
- Flip edge
- -0.30
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.27
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
107.1
Per game
6.69
17-gm pace
114
Best / worst
23.8 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.2 | TE44 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.0 | TE57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | TE25 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.1 | TE42 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 7 | 2.4 | TE29 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| 8 | 3.8 | TE19 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| 9 | 23.8 | TE2 | 7 | 6 | 118 | 2 |
| 10 | 5.5 | TE15 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| 11 | 4.0 | TE18 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| 12 | 10.9 | TE2 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| 13 | 2.8 | TE26 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| 14 | 8.9 | TE9 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| 15 | 6.1 | TE15 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| 16 | 3.0 | TE25 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| 17 | 15.4 | TE1 | 10 | 6 | 94 | 1 |
| 18 | 15.1 | TE3 | 13 | 10 | 91 | 1 |