Chuba Hubbard
CARRB31 · overall #78 · tier 7 · age 27
Projected points
134
9.3/gm
Value over replacement
29
repl 116
Range
96–172
sd 38
Week
13.4
vs DET
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Re-priced 22 Aug at Matt's read that Hubbard and Brooks are nearly the wrong way round. The 6 Aug row cut him toward ADP and still left him RB28 against ADP RB32 and ECR RB32, i.e. ahead of both. His 2025 does not support that: 7.49/g on 8.93 carries a game across 15 games, against 14.94/g on 16.67 in 2024 -- the workload halved and the production with it. RB32 is level with both markets rather than ahead of them.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 2.5
- Carries / game
- 11.2
- Receptions / game
- 2.0
- Rec yards / game
- 13
- Rush yards / game
- 48
- Rush TD / game
- 0.25
- Rec TD / game
- 0.06
- Total TD / game
- 0.31
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 10.6
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.0
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.33
- OL pass protection
- +0.21
- OL continuity
- 71%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.68
- Scheme creativity
- -0.67
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 34
- Effective contributors
- 2.06
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.36
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DET,PHI
- Window matchup
- -0.21
- Opponents after
- TB,GB,DEN
- After matchup
- -0.26
- Flip edge
- +0.05
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.77
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
15
Points
95.4
Per game
6.36
17-gm pace
108
Best / worst
18.4 / -0.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.9 | RB6 | 16 | 57 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| 2 | 13.7 | RB15 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | RB28 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 6.9 | RB39 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| 7 | 5.5 | RB29 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| 8 | 9.4 | RB22 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 1.7 | RB47 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 1.5 | RB51 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | 2.8 | RB49 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 | 4.3 | RB37 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| 13 | 18.4 | RB6 | 17 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| 15 | 3.8 | RB44 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | 3.4 | RB52 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 | -0.2 | RB94 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 | 1.7 | RB61 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |