Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Christian McCaffrey

SF

RB3 · overall #3 · tier 1 · age 30

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Projected points

242

18.7/gm

Value over replacement

153

repl 110

Range

203–281

sd 39

Week

14.8

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
77
Carries
215
Receptions
60
Rec yards
481
Rush yards
931
Rush TD
6.4
Rec TD
3.4
Total TD
9.8
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
23.5
Games of history
54
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.00
OL pass protection
-0.53
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.62
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
5
Effective contributors
1.54
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.18

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup
+1.34
Opponents after
DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup
-0.41
Flip edge
+1.75
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.00

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

314.6

Per game

18.51

17-gm pace

315

Best / worst

32.1 / 5.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
114.222690109730
216.71355076521
314.0175201510880
420.117490116921
519.92257098821
617.11754187570
732.124129287720
86.8825063430
929.328106165671
109.612300108660
1130.11381265401
1220.22489177530
1313.42053144210
1514.72273111140
1626.621117086292
1724.123140164410
185.7823076340