RB
Christian McCaffrey
SFRB3 · overall #3 · tier 1 · age 30
Projected points
237
18.1/gm
Value over replacement
142
repl 116
Range
199–275
sd 38
Week
16.6
vs DEN
The take
written by hand
I'm buying the rate and paying for the risk. 15.4 carries and 6.1 targets a game is still RB1 usage; 12.9 games at 30 with a questionable tag is the entire discount. Give him sixteen and he's back on top.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 78
- Carries
- 207
- Receptions
- 61
- Rec yards
- 489
- Rush yards
- 895
- Rush TD
- 6.5
- Rec TD
- 3.4
- Total TD
- 10.0
- Games projected
- 13.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 23.5
- Games of history
- 54
- Age multiplier
- 0.876
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.5
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- -0.01
- OL pass protection
- -0.56
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 17%
- 3WR rate
- 45%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.64
- Scheme creativity
- +0.36
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 5
- Effective contributors
- 1.54
- Top player's share
- 77%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.18
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DEN,SEA,WAS
- Window matchup
- -0.31
- Opponents after
- ATL,LV
- After matchup
- +0.27
- Flip edge
- -0.57
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.94
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
314.6
Per game
18.51
17-gm pace
315
Best / worst
32.1 / 5.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.2 | RB9 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| 2 | 16.7 | RB7 | 13 | 55 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| 3 | 14.0 | RB12 | 17 | 52 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| 4 | 20.1 | RB9 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 92 | 1 |
| 5 | 19.9 | RB6 | 22 | 57 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| 6 | 17.1 | RB9 | 17 | 54 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| 7 | 32.1 | RB2 | 24 | 129 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| 8 | 6.8 | RB28 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| 9 | 29.3 | RB1 | 28 | 106 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| 10 | 9.6 | RB21 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| 11 | 30.1 | RB2 | 13 | 81 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| 12 | 20.2 | RB4 | 24 | 89 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| 13 | 13.4 | RB16 | 20 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 | 14.7 | RB13 | 22 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 | 26.6 | RB4 | 21 | 117 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 2 |
| 17 | 24.1 | RB5 | 23 | 140 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| 18 | 5.7 | RB30 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 0 |