Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Chris Olave

NO

WR21 · overall #53 · tier 5 · age 26

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Projected points

152

11.3/gm

Value over replacement

52

repl 119

Range

106–198

sd 46

Week

16.5

vs ATL

The take

written by hand

9.4 targets a game, and he picks up a little more with Tyson down to nine. His own 13.4 games is what keeps him at WR12 rather than higher.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
112
Carries
1
Receptions
70
Rec yards
876
Rush yards
2
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
5.7
Total TD
5.7
Games projected
13.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
15.0
Games of history
55
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.8
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.21
OL pass protection
+0.11
OL continuity
76%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.72
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
ATL,MIN,NYG
Window matchup
+0.02
Opponents after
PIT,CLE
After matchup
+0.48
Flip edge
-0.45
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.25

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

218.0

Per game

13.62

17-gm pace

232

Best / worst

31.8 / 4.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
18.9WR3313754000
28.4WR4610654000
310.7WR30141057000
47.5WR396320100
59.4WR3511759000
612.8WR1810698000
724.3WR47598200
810.0WR321286301-3
97.2WR444357000
1018.9WR685104100
1211.5WR2313970000
1312.7WR197447100
144.5WR515330000
1517.5WR109685100
1631.8WR21610148200
1721.9WR2118119100