Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Chris Brooks

GB

RB71 · overall #244 · tier – · age 26

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Projected points

62

4.9/gm

Value over replacement

-30

repl 116

Range

49–75

sd 13

Week

3.0

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-01

Raised 1 Sep. Green Bay's DEPTH 2 behind Lloyd with Jacobs fourth and carrying a groin, and the board had him RB74 on 5.32 car/g -- a fourth-back share for a man listed second. Games left blank deliberately: he is healthy and the claim is entirely about ROLE, so the override should spend itself on the rate and not invent availability. ROOM-CONSTRAINED 1 Sep: overrides run AFTER normalize_team_carries, so writing four in one backfield inflated Green Bay from 29.1 car/g to 37.8, third-highest of 32 against a median of 29.3. Jacobs being hurt moves carries around the room; it does not create them. All four are priced to hold the room near 30. TARGET ADOPTED AT RB68, not the RB55 first written: RB55 needs about 8 car/g, and at that plus Lloyd, Johnson and a returning Jacobs the room breaks 35 again. A depth-2 back sharing with three others is a flex-adjacent piece, and RB68 is the honest ceiling here.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
29
Carries
64
Receptions
23
Rec yards
156
Rush yards
272
Rush TD
1.1
Rec TD
0.0
Total TD
1.1
Games projected
12.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
2.5
Games of history
31
Age multiplier
0.953
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
35
Effective contributors
2.10
Top player's share
61%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.37

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
-0.05
Flip edge
+0.14
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.21

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

19.7

Per game

1.16

17-gm pace

20

Best / worst

6.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.3RB741101120
22.7RB4800043270
30.0RB760000000
40.1RB710001110
60.1RB651100000
70.0RB730001000
80.0RB700000000
92.4RB4500022240
100.0RB690000000
110.8RB631800000
122.6RB4382101150
130.9RB680002290
140.6RB630001160
151.6RB6121002160
160.4RB721400000
171.1RB6100021110
186.1RB27136100000