Chase Brown
CINRB8 · overall #12 · tier 3 · age 26
Projected points
206
13.7/gm
Value over replacement
97
repl 116
Range
165–247
sd 41
Week
12.8
vs JAX
The take
written by hand
I raised him to consensus. 14.6 carries plus 4.7 targets a game is a genuine three-down role and I had been fading it too hard.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
RE-PRICED 22 Aug. The row said 'Manual role step-up, RAISED TO CONSENSUS at Matt's direction' and no longer reached it: the board had him RB14 against a consensus of RB10.5 (ADP RB8, ECR RB9). Same claim, re-priced to land RB10 today. The intent was always the consensus rank, so the target column now says so and the audit will catch it drifting again rather than a human having to.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 4.6
- Carries / game
- 15.4
- Receptions / game
- 3.7
- Rec yards / game
- 24
- Rush yards / game
- 63
- Rush TD / game
- 0.30
- Rec TD / game
- 0.19
- Total TD / game
- 0.49
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.1
- Games of history
- 45
- Age multiplier
- 0.953
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.8
- Projected pass rate
- 60%
- OL run block
- -0.73
- OL pass protection
- -1.39
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 40%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.75
- Scheme creativity
- -0.67
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 9
- Effective contributors
- 1.82
- Top player's share
- 69%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.28
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- JAX,MIA
- Window matchup
- +0.43
- Opponents after
- BAL,TEN,ATL
- After matchup
- -0.49
- Flip edge
- +0.92
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.50
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
213.6
Per game
12.56
17-gm pace
214
Best / worst
28.9 / 2.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.1 | RB18 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.5 | RB33 | 16 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | RB57 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | RB38 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| 5 | 4.8 | RB36 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.9 | RB20 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | 10.0 | RB17 | 11 | 108 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
| 8 | 22.5 | RB6 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| 9 | 11.2 | RB15 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| 11 | 12.7 | RB18 | 18 | 99 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| 12 | 13.0 | RB11 | 19 | 107 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 | 11.3 | RB22 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| 14 | 15.5 | RB10 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| 15 | 9.0 | RB28 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| 16 | 28.9 | RB2 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 |
| 17 | 26.1 | RB3 | 22 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| 18 | 15.0 | RB9 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 1 |