RB
Chase Brown
CINRB11 · overall #21 · tier 3 · age 26
Projected points
201
13.4/gm
Value over replacement
98
repl 110
Range
159–242
sd 41
Week
13.8
vs TB
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 4.7
- Carries / game
- 14.7
- Receptions / game
- 3.7
- Rec yards / game
- 24
- Rush yards / game
- 60
- Rush TD / game
- 0.29
- Rec TD / game
- 0.19
- Total TD / game
- 0.48
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.1
- Games of history
- 45
- Age multiplier
- 0.953
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 60%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -1.37
- OL continuity
- 99%
- 2TE rate
- 40%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.75
- Scheme creativity
- -0.69
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 9
- Effective contributors
- 1.82
- Top player's share
- 69%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.28
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- TB,HOU,PIT
- Window matchup
- -0.09
- Opponents after
- JAX,MIA
- After matchup
- +0.25
- Flip edge
- -0.35
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.43
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
213.6
Per game
12.56
17-gm pace
214
Best / worst
28.9 / 2.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.1 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 16 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| 5 | 4.8 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.9 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | 10.0 | 11 | 108 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
| 8 | 22.5 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| 9 | 11.2 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| 11 | 12.7 | 18 | 99 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| 12 | 13.0 | 19 | 107 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 | 11.3 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| 14 | 15.5 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| 15 | 9.0 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| 16 | 28.9 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 |
| 17 | 26.1 | 22 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| 18 | 15.0 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 1 |