Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

CeeDee Lamb

DAL

WR8 · overall #27 · tier 3 · age 27

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Projected points

186

12.8/gm

Value over replacement

82

repl 115

Range

122–250

sd 64

Week

12.2

@ NYG

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
8.7
Carries / game
0.4
Receptions / game
5.7
Rec yards / game
73
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.43
Total TD / game
0.45
Games projected
14.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.6
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.939
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.16
OL pass protection
+0.01
OL continuity
92%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.34
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.92
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYG,WAS,BAL
Window matchup
+0.75
Opponents after
HOU,TB,GB
After matchup
-0.19
Flip edge
+0.93
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.36

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

163.4

Per game

12.57

17-gm pace

214

Best / worst

20.7 / 0.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
114.5137110000
215.7119112000
719.585110100
811.110774012
912.012785000
1115.17566100
129.511475000
1320.797112100
1415.186121000
1514.1106111000
168.17651000
177.110546000
180.9114000