QB
C.J. Stroud
HOUQB19 · overall #165 · tier 6 · age 24
Projected points
225
15.7/gm
Value over replacement
-10
repl 261
Range
189–261
sd 36
Week
13.5
vs BUF
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 480
- Pass yards
- 3318
- Pass TD
- 21.0
- Carries
- 46
- Rush yards
- 196
- Rush TD
- 1.2
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.1
- Games of history
- 46
- Age multiplier
- 1.038
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.17
- OL continuity
- 70%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.37
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- BUF,CIN,IND
- Window matchup
- +0.39
- Opponents after
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- After matchup
- +0.30
- Flip edge
- +0.09
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.71
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
14
Points
208.5
Per game
14.90
17-gm pace
253
Best / worst
28.8 / 4.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.7 | 19 | 27 | 188 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| 2 | 15.0 | 13 | 24 | 207 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 25 | 38 | 204 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| 4 | 18.4 | 22 | 28 | 233 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| 5 | 28.8 | 23 | 27 | 244 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| 7 | 13.7 | 23 | 49 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| 8 | 21.7 | 30 | 39 | 318 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| 9 | 4.4 | 6 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 | 9.0 | 22 | 35 | 276 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.6 | 15 | 31 | 203 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 | 23.4 | 22 | 29 | 260 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 | 11.5 | 23 | 35 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 13.8 | 16 | 28 | 244 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 17.3 | 14 | 23 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |