QB
C.J. Stroud
HOUQB18 · overall #154 · tier 5 · age 24
Projected points
222
15.4/gm
Value over replacement
-3
repl 250
Range
186–258
sd 36
Week
16.7
vs DAL
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 32.8
- Pass yards / game
- 227
- Pass TD / game
- 1.43
- Carries / game
- 3.2
- Rush yards / game
- 14
- Rush TD / game
- 0.08
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.1
- Games of history
- 46
- Age multiplier
- 1.038
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.19
- OL continuity
- 64%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.36
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- Window matchup
- +0.43
- Opponents after
- NYG,LAC
- After matchup
- -0.45
- Flip edge
- +0.88
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.79
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
14
Points
208.5
Per game
14.90
17-gm pace
253
Best / worst
28.8 / 4.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.7 | QB26 | 19 | 27 | 188 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| 2 | 15.0 | QB22 | 13 | 24 | 207 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | QB27 | 25 | 38 | 204 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| 4 | 18.4 | QB14 | 22 | 28 | 233 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| 5 | 28.8 | QB1 | 23 | 27 | 244 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| 7 | 13.7 | QB15 | 23 | 49 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| 8 | 21.7 | QB11 | 30 | 39 | 318 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| 9 | 4.4 | QB28 | 6 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 | 9.0 | QB26 | 22 | 35 | 276 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.6 | QB17 | 15 | 31 | 203 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 | 23.4 | QB8 | 22 | 29 | 260 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 | 11.5 | QB22 | 23 | 35 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 13.8 | QB18 | 16 | 28 | 244 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 17.3 | QB10 | 14 | 23 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |