Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Bryce Lance

NOROOKIE R4

WR176 · overall #569 · tier

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Projected points

29

1.9/gm

Value over replacement

-78

repl 115

Range

11–47

sd 18

Week

1.7

@ DET

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
19
Carries
0
Receptions
12
Rec yards
164
Rush yards
1
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
1.0
Total TD
1.0
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.09
OL pass protection
+0.23
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.31
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.72
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DET,BAL,LV
Window matchup
-0.20
Opponents after
ATL,MIN,NYG
After matchup
-0.01
Flip edge
-0.19
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.58

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Bryce Lance — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.