Brian Thomas Jr.
JAXWR34 · overall #88 · tier 8 · age 23
Projected points
128
8.9/gm
Value over replacement
21
repl 119
Range
70–185
sd 58
Week
5.8
@ CIN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut to WR37 on 22 Aug against ADP 37 and ECR 26. Expanded 3 Sep. The substance is the cut against his OWN record: 127.6 over 14.4 games is 8.86/g against 12.82/g over 31 career games, a 31% reduction. Sleeper projects 164.4, well above, so this is the board's most aggressive disagreement among the market-matched rows. Markets have converged toward it since: ADP 35, ECR 36, consensus 29, Underdog 33 against ECR 26 when written. Lands WR37 exactly.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 6.0
- Carries / game
- 0.3
- Receptions / game
- 3.6
- Rec yards / game
- 49
- Rush yards / game
- 2
- Rush TD / game
- 0.02
- Rec TD / game
- 0.30
- Total TD / game
- 0.32
- Games projected
- 14.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.8
- Games of history
- 31
- Age multiplier
- 1.052
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 61.3
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -0.20
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- -0.03
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.41
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CIN,PHI,HOU
- Window matchup
- -0.60
- Opponents after
- IND,BAL
- After matchup
- +0.19
- Flip edge
- -0.79
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.32
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
14
Points
114.8
Per game
8.20
17-gm pace
139
Best / worst
19.0 / 2.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.5 | WR37 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | 6.9 | WR62 | 12 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | WR42 | 6 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 8.1 | WR36 | 7 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | 10.0 | WR30 | 6 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 19.0 | WR7 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 4.6 | WR60 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 7.0 | WR45 | 5 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 3.8 | WR61 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 10.2 | WR24 | 6 | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 15.1 | WR13 | 7 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | 2.8 | WR81 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 5.9 | WR47 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 6.4 | WR36 | 5 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |