Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Brenton Strange

JAX

TE20 · overall #143 · tier 5 · age 25

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Projected points

99

6.9/gm

Value over replacement

-1

repl 112

Range

69–130

sd 31

Week

6.5

@ CIN

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-24

Re-priced 24 Aug to the CURRENT market, replacing the 6 Aug row that was lifted the same day. WHAT THIS IS, stated plainly so nobody mistakes it for a model finding: it is a market-matching claim and carries no independent football argument. The model natively has him TE28 on 6.17/g, and every market has him a decade of ranks higher -- ADP TE18, ECR TE17, Underdog TE18, Yahoo TE23. 99.3 = 6.94/g x 14.3 games lands TE18 (re-priced once: the first write assumed 13.8 games and his availability moved to 14.3 under the override, so the rate fell and he landed TE22 -- the NUMBER was corrected to hit the stated target rather than the target moved to where he fell), the median of those four, between Hockenson and Engram. WHY RE-PRICED RATHER THAN LEFT LIFTED: the original row's INTENT was to track the market, and its premise died only because the market moved (it quotes 'ADP 14, Sleeper 13' against today's 18 and 17). Deleting it would have abandoned the intent rather than maintained it, and left a 10-rank gap nobody had argued for. THE STANDING CAVEAT: `availability_vs_market` measured the market beating this model at every position and every stratum, so matching it is defensible -- but a row like this one goes stale by construction every time ADP moves, and ADP now refreshes daily. If these get re-read again and the market has moved once more, the honest options are to re-price again or to decide the model's own number is worth backing.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.0
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.7
Rec yards / game
37
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.24
Total TD / game
0.24
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.6
Games of history
33
Age multiplier
1.050
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.2
Projected plays / game
61.3
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.72
OL pass protection
-0.20
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.06
Scheme creativity
-0.03
Play action / motion
23% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
46
Effective contributors
2.55
Top player's share
57%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.53

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CIN,PHI,HOU
Window matchup
-0.02
Opponents after
IND,BAL
After matchup
-0.46
Flip edge
+0.45
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.26

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

12

Points

118.0

Per game

9.83

17-gm pace

167

Best / worst

17.2 / 3.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
19.9TE1744590
24.7TE3753170
312.1TE776610
410.5TE1676450
53.2TE3911220
1214.3TE455930
1313.5TE743451
145.7TE2163270
153.6TE3931260
1614.9TE1075391
178.4TE2053540
1817.2TE566521