Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Brashard Smith

KC

RB129 · overall #436 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

47

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-60

repl 116

Range

22–73

sd 26

Week

2.1

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
1.6
Carries / game
3.4
Receptions / game
1.2
Rec yards / game
8
Rush yards / game
13
Rush TD / game
0.03
Rec TD / game
0.03
Total TD / game
0.06
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
3.7
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.045
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.2
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.13
OL pass protection
-0.04
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.04
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
50
Effective contributors
2.66
Top player's share
49%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.56

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
LV,LAC
Window matchup
+0.58
Opponents after
SEA,DEN,NYJ
After matchup
-0.29
Flip edge
+0.87
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.23

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

50.8

Per game

2.99

17-gm pace

51

Best / worst

10.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.0RB810000000
20.2RB731201000
31.3RB6721301000
45.1RB4749043270
55.1RB3614033320
63.6RB4900043210
710.6RB191439055420
80.8RB603800000
90.7RB593701000
111.8RB590003280
125.1RB3715043310
130.0RB740000000
140.7RB641700000
150.1RB792100000
160.9RB720001140
178.0RB250004351
186.8RB27125604220