Blake Corum
LARB52 · overall #174 · tier 9 · age 25
Projected points
104
6.8/gm
Value over replacement
-8
repl 116
Range
75–134
sd 30
Week
5.8
@ PHI
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read. The DECAY IS POINTING THE WRONG WAY FOR HIM: his seasons run 2.00/g as a rookie then 6.95 on 8.53 carries in 2025, and the 0.50 blend drags a rising player back toward a year he has plainly outgrown -- the model's 6.40 sits BELOW his most recent season. Same instrument as the Pacheco cut and the opposite sign, which is the point: a career blend describes neither a collapsing player nor an ascending one. RB44, between ADP RB42 and the board, short of ECR RB38 because Kyren Williams is still ahead of him at 15.9 carries a game.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 1.2
- Carries / game
- 9.2
- Receptions / game
- 0.8
- Rec yards / game
- 6
- Rush yards / game
- 42
- Rush TD / game
- 0.22
- Rec TD / game
- 0.00
- Total TD / game
- 0.22
- Games projected
- 15.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 5.6
- Games of history
- 32
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.74
- OL pass protection
- +0.72
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 69%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.61
- Scheme creativity
- +1.28
- Play action / motion
- 32% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 16
- Effective contributors
- 1.93
- Top player's share
- 63%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.32
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- PHI,BUF,ARI
- Window matchup
- +0.44
- Opponents after
- LV,LAC,WAS
- After matchup
- +0.65
- Flip edge
- -0.22
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.05
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
118.2
Per game
6.95
17-gm pace
118
Best / worst
25.6 / 1.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1 | RB54 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | RB26 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | RB42 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | RB55 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | RB61 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 2.3 | RB52 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 4.8 | RB37 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 9 | 5.8 | RB33 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 5.6 | RB39 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 1.0 | RB64 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | 2.4 | RB48 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 14.1 | RB18 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 25.6 | RB3 | 12 | 128 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | 13.1 | RB16 | 11 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 12.6 | RB21 | 14 | 48 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 | 1.8 | RB61 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 7.4 | RB26 | 13 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |