Zay Flowers
BALWR15 · overall #44 · tier 4 · age 26
Projected points
172
11.3/gm
Value over replacement
59
repl 119
Range
112–232
sd 60
Week
13.5
vs TEN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
RAISED 22 Aug, reversing a cut this row's OWN REASON predicted would go stale. The 17 Aug text already said it: 'an override written to align him TO the market now sits BELOW both' -- ADP WR13, ECR WR15, and the override landing WR17. It has since drifted further, to WR22. It called itself a HISTORY anchor at 6.86 targets a game, and that argument has flipped with the history. His three seasons run 10.37, 10.15, 12.14 points a game on 53.6, 62.3, 71.2 receiving yards -- rising on both, and at the model's WR decay of 0.50 his own weighted rate is 11.32/g against a projected 10.30. The anchor now argues UP. 172.1 = 11.32 x 15.2 games, his own record rather than a market target, which lands around WR15 and between ADP WR13 and ECR WR15 without conceding to either. Deliberately below the 187.2 native the 17 Aug note recorded, because WR7 was the level this row existed to dispute and that part still holds.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 115
- Carries
- 7
- Receptions
- 76
- Rec yards
- 1002
- Rush yards
- 40
- Rush TD
- 0.3
- Rec TD
- 4.7
- Total TD
- 4.9
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 13.5
- Games of history
- 50
- Age multiplier
- 1.009
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.9
- Projected plays / game
- 60.2
- Projected pass rate
- 53%
- OL run block
- +0.50
- OL pass protection
- -0.17
- OL continuity
- 57%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 34%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.69
- Scheme creativity
- +0.62
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 93
- Effective contributors
- 2.62
- Top player's share
- 56%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.14
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TEN,ATL,CLE
- Window matchup
- +0.60
- Opponents after
- CIN,BUF,JAX
- After matchup
- -0.23
- Flip edge
- +0.84
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.08
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
17
Points
243.3
Per game
14.31
17-gm pace
243
Best / worst
29.8 / 0.6
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28.1 | WR1 | 9 | 7 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | 14.9 | WR27 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | WR88 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 14.4 | WR23 | 8 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 12.2 | WR29 | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 8.6 | WR39 | 10 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 14.1 | WR23 | 9 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | 11.4 | WR32 | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 12.1 | WR31 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | 11.3 | WR23 | 5 | 3 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | 11.9 | WR27 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | 0.6 | WR107 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 20.6 | WR8 | 11 | 8 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | 15.8 | WR20 | 5 | 3 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 21.2 | WR9 | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 17 | 13.0 | WR24 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 29.8 | WR1 | 6 | 4 | 138 | 2 | 0 | 0 |