Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Xavier Worthy

KC

WR48 · overall #109 · tier 8 · age 23

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Projected points

118

8.3/gm

Value over replacement

16

repl 115

Range

73–163

sd 45

Week

7.1

vs DEN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
84
Carries
11
Receptions
50
Rec yards
614
Rush yards
63
Rush TD
0.7
Rec TD
3.5
Total TD
4.2
Games projected
14.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
30
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.3
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.25
OL pass protection
+0.05
OL continuity
87%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.01
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.80
Top player's share
25%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DEN,IND,MIA
Window matchup
+0.85
Opponents after
LV,LAC
After matchup
-0.08
Flip edge
+0.93
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.02

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

14

Points

88.9

Per game

6.35

17-gm pace

108

Best / worst

14.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.0100010
414.685830238
58.19642019
69.64220116
76.343350113
87.87553000
94.57323017
114.05325000
127.98459000
139.464610213
147.04355000
154.54235000
165.13241010
170.1300011