Wan'Dale Robinson
TENWR45 · overall #105 · tier 9 · age 25
Projected points
116
8.4/gm
Value over replacement
14
repl 119
Range
42–190
sd 74
Week
6.5
@ BAL
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read. Projected 8.85 targets a game -- a genuine WR1 volume -- and 10.33/g against a weighted history of 9.41. The volume is not invented: he really did run 8.75 targets a game in 2025. THE PROBLEM IS THAT HE EARNED IT SOMEWHERE ELSE. He is now on Tennessee at depth_order 2, and the model carries a target share across a team change as though it were a property of the player. That is exactly what apply_incoming_competition was built for and it is NOT called, because it failed its held-out test -- so there is no lever here but an override. Both markets price the move hard: ADP WR45, ECR WR41. WR42 sits between them.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 7.2
- Carries / game
- 0.2
- Receptions / game
- 4.7
- Rec yards / game
- 47
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.01
- Rec TD / game
- 0.22
- Total TD / game
- 0.23
- Games projected
- 13.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.9
- Games of history
- 54
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.4
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.29
- OL pass protection
- -1.25
- OL continuity
- 46%
- 2TE rate
- 21%
- 3WR rate
- 77%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 39%
- Run friendly
- +0.16
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 20% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 4.85
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BAL,HOU,IND
- Window matchup
- -0.58
- Opponents after
- CLE,CIN
- After matchup
- -0.48
- Flip edge
- -0.10
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.13
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
125.9
Per game
7.87
17-gm pace
134
Best / worst
21.6 / 1.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.5 | WR41 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 20.2 | WR5 | 10 | 8 | 142 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | WR70 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | WR89 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3.2 | WR62 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 6 | 14.4 | WR11 | 7 | 6 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 9.5 | WR22 | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 4.8 | WR46 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 4.6 | WR47 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 6.2 | WR34 | 11 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.6 | WR52 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 21.6 | WR2 | 14 | 9 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 3.4 | WR51 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 11.4 | WR17 | 10 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 2.2 | WR79 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | 11.3 | WR14 | 14 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |