Wan'Dale Robinson
TENWR45 · overall #105 · tier 9 · age 25
Projected points
116
8.4/gm
Value over replacement
14
repl 119
Range
42–190
sd 74
Week
6.5
@ BAL
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read. Projected 8.85 targets a game -- a genuine WR1 volume -- and 10.33/g against a weighted history of 9.41. The volume is not invented: he really did run 8.75 targets a game in 2025. THE PROBLEM IS THAT HE EARNED IT SOMEWHERE ELSE. He is now on Tennessee at depth_order 2, and the model carries a target share across a team change as though it were a property of the player. That is exactly what apply_incoming_competition was built for and it is NOT called, because it failed its held-out test -- so there is no lever here but an override. Both markets price the move hard: ADP WR45, ECR WR41. WR42 sits between them.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 99
- Carries
- 2
- Receptions
- 64
- Rec yards
- 652
- Rush yards
- 12
- Rush TD
- 0.1
- Rec TD
- 3.0
- Total TD
- 3.1
- Games projected
- 13.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.9
- Games of history
- 54
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.4
- Projected plays / game
- 59.5
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -1.29
- OL pass protection
- -1.25
- OL continuity
- 46%
- 2TE rate
- 21%
- 3WR rate
- 77%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 39%
- Run friendly
- +0.16
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 20% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 4.85
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- BAL,HOU,IND
- Window matchup
- -0.58
- Opponents after
- CLE,CIN
- After matchup
- -0.48
- Flip edge
- -0.10
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 9
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.13
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
16
Points
171.9
Per game
10.74
17-gm pace
183
Best / worst
26.1 / 2.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.5 | WR37 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 24.2 | WR5 | 10 | 8 | 142 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | WR79 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | WR78 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5.7 | WR56 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 6 | 17.4 | WR10 | 7 | 6 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 12.5 | WR19 | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 6.3 | WR50 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.1 | WR32 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 9.2 | WR32 | 11 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.6 | WR48 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 26.1 | WR2 | 14 | 9 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 6.9 | WR42 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 13.9 | WR19 | 10 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 3.7 | WR73 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | 16.8 | WR8 | 14 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |