QB
Tua Tagovailoa
ATLQB50 · overall #552 · tier – · age 28
Projected points
131
9.7/gm
Value over replacement
-80
repl 250
Range
75–186
sd 56
Week
3.5
@ NO
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 290
- Pass yards
- 2136
- Pass TD
- 14.3
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yards
- 72
- Rush TD
- 0.1
- Games projected
- 13.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.0
- Games of history
- 55
- Age multiplier
- 1.012
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.7
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.17
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 29%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.35
- Scheme creativity
- -0.20
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 66%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NO,BAL,CHI
- Window matchup
- +0.13
- Opponents after
- SF,TB,CIN
- After matchup
- +0.32
- Flip edge
- -0.19
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.61
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
14
Points
160.7
Per game
11.48
17-gm pace
195
Best / worst
24.2 / -1.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.3 | QB31 | 14 | 23 | 114 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2 | 18.6 | QB17 | 26 | 32 | 315 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 12.8 | QB19 | 22 | 34 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 4 | 15.7 | QB19 | 17 | 25 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | 22.7 | QB9 | 27 | 36 | 256 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 6.6 | QB29 | 21 | 32 | 205 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 7 | -1.4 | QB38 | 12 | 23 | 100 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 8 | 24.2 | QB6 | 20 | 26 | 205 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 8.5 | QB25 | 25 | 40 | 261 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | 10.8 | QB20 | 15 | 21 | 173 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | 6.8 | QB26 | 14 | 20 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 4.7 | QB29 | 12 | 23 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | 9.1 | QB22 | 13 | 21 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 16.2 | QB18 | 22 | 28 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |