Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Travis Kelce

KC

TE6 · overall #85 · tier 2 · age 36

← back to rankings

Projected points

140

8.9/gm

Value over replacement

31

repl 111

Range

103–177

sd 37

Week

8.9

vs DEN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
103
Carries
1
Receptions
74
Rec yards
754
Rush yards
1
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
4.6
Total TD
4.6
Games projected
15.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.9
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
0.774
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.3
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.25
OL pass protection
+0.05
OL continuity
87%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.01
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
6
Effective contributors
1.66
Top player's share
73%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.22

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DEN,IND,MIA
Window matchup
+0.95
Opponents after
LV,LAC
After matchup
-0.01
Flip edge
+0.96
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

193.2

Per game

11.36

17-gm pace

193

Best / worst

24.1 / 1.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
112.742471
210.164610
36.674260
49.855480
519.187611
613.876780
78.433540
821.986991
912.654660
1124.1139911
128.464430
1315.565451
141.85180
1514.097700
161.64160
178.665360
184.263120