Travis Etienne

A lead-back call in New Orleans. Big contract, 13.2 carries and 3.7 targets a game, and I've already cut Kamara to 6.4 carries to pay for it.

RATE RE-PRICED 22 Sep: the promotion premise is FALSIFIED by Kamara's return, and this row named its own dependency. Written 3 Sep to promote Etienne to the New Orleans lead job, its re-read said the claim rests on Kamara's override holding him at 6.70/g -- 'the vacated lead work the promotion argument needs is still vacated'. It is not vacated any more. THE EVIDENCE IS ONE GAME AND IT IS THE ONLY GAME THAT BEARS ON IT. Week 1, no Kamara: 53 snaps, 9 carries, 9 TARGETS, 11.3 points. Week 2, Kamara active for just 20 snaps: 37 snaps (-30%), 8 carries, 2 targets, 6.1 points -- and KAMARA OUT-CARRIED HIM 9 to 8 while taking the passing down 6 targets to 2. The 184.5 total implies 13.45 car/g and 3.60 tgt/g; he has run 9 and 8 and been targeted 9 then 2. SIZED AS A BLEND, not off the single with-Kamara game, because one game is what this file warns about everywhere else. Kamara projects 13.2 of 17 games, so Etienne sits in the reduced role about 78% of the time. 0.78 x 6.5 (with-Kamara, credited a little above the observed 6.1 for one-game touchdown variance) + 0.22 x 11.3 (his own Kamara-less week) = 7.56/g, x 15.7 games = 118.6. That is a committee back, which is what the usage says he now is. GAMES ARE NOT IN DISPUTE and are deliberately blank: he is healthy at 15.7 with essentially no availability damping to undo, so split_override spends this on RATE, which is where the argument lives. Target blanked -- this states a rate claim and promises no rank. READ KAMARA'S ROW WITH THIS ONE. His 83.0 override (RB50, 6.38/g) rests on '21% of the New Orleans backfield' and he took 9 carries and 6 targets on 20 snaps in his first game back. That number is still about right for a ramping 31-year-old, but the premise underneath it moved and the two rows are chained. If Kamara misses time again, THIS row is the one that is too low.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.