Tetairoa McMillan
CARWR16 · overall #45 · tier 5 · age 23
Projected points
169
11.2/gm
Value over replacement
57
repl 119
Range
119–218
sd 49
Week
9.4
vs DET
The take
written by hand
8.0 targets a game across 15.0 of them at 23, with draft capital behind him. Nothing clever here: it's volume and a clean bill of health.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-03
REASON REWRITTEN 17 Aug; the number is unchanged and still wanted. The old text said 'a modest step up', which was true on 11 Aug and is not now: the model has since climbed to WR9 (185.3) on its own, so this 168.5 is a CUT of 3 ranks, not a raise. Keeping it as a cut is right on the year-2 evidence -- second-year receivers miss ADP by a mean +15.9 with 53% missing by 10+ -- and 168.5 still leaves him above ADP WR16 and ECR WR15. Recorded because an override whose stated direction no longer matches its effect is how the Bo Nix one went stale for ten days. Re-read 3 Sep: no sign of falsification. Board WR17 against ADP WR17 and ECR WR16. The row's own point was that it had become a CUT rather than a raise, and it still is.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 121
- Carries
- 0
- Receptions
- 73
- Rec yards
- 949
- Rush yards
- 0
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 5.9
- Total TD
- 5.9
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.9
- Games of history
- 17
- Age multiplier
- 1.052
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.0
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.33
- OL pass protection
- +0.21
- OL continuity
- 71%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.68
- Scheme creativity
- -0.67
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 3.79
- Top player's share
- 42%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DET,PHI
- Window matchup
- -0.41
- Opponents after
- TB,GB,DEN
- After matchup
- -0.48
- Flip edge
- +0.08
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.55
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
17
Points
213.4
Per game
12.55
17-gm pace
213
Best / worst
33.0 / 1.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.8 | WR30 | 9 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16.0 | WR21 | 10 | 6 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | WR47 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 10.2 | WR32 | 8 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 13.3 | WR25 | 8 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 17.9 | WR13 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 6.3 | WR59 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 16.9 | WR11 | 10 | 7 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 8.6 | WR45 | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 11.0 | WR33 | 8 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 33.0 | WR2 | 12 | 8 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 11.5 | WR28 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 11.3 | WR29 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 4.5 | WR73 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 19.3 | WR14 | 10 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 1.5 | WR106 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 12.5 | WR19 | 6 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |