WR
Sterling Shepard
NYJWR110 · overall #256 · tier – · age 33
Projected points
61
4.9/gm
Value over replacement
-31
repl 119
Range
31–91
sd 30
Week
3.0
@ CHI
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 47
- Carries
- 3
- Receptions
- 30
- Rec yards
- 325
- Rush yards
- 17
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 1.1
- Total TD
- 1.1
- Games projected
- 12.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 6.0
- Games of history
- 39
- Age multiplier
- 0.750
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.17
- OL pass protection
- -0.10
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 22%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- -0.43
- Scheme creativity
- -0.07
- Play action / motion
- 19% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 6.43
- Top player's share
- 22%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CHI,CLE,NE
- Window matchup
- +0.28
- Opponents after
- MIA,LV,KC
- After matchup
- +0.04
- Flip edge
- +0.24
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.07
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
13
Points
43.0
Per game
3.31
17-gm pace
56
Best / worst
8.0 / 0.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.9 | WR54 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | WR71 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | WR31 | 5 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | WR75 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | 7.9 | WR32 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 1 | -5 |
| 6 | 5.1 | WR37 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 0.5 | WR95 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.8 | WR82 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 3.1 | WR58 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | 6.1 | WR29 | 5 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | 1.2 | WR77 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.5 | WR99 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.5 | WR90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |