Saquon Barkley

I raised him from RB19 to RB11. 14.6 carries and 3.3 targets at 29 with the age curve at 0.90 — I'm not paying for last year in full, but I had gone too far the other way.

Market-matching call, 22 Aug: raised 190.6 -> 206.0 to land RB8. Expanded 3 Sep from an assertion into something checkable; the CALL is unchanged and this adds no new claim. 211.7 over 15.5 games is 13.66/g against his own 15.19 half-PPR/g, so the override buys back only part of the gap to his record and still sits well under it. Sleeper projects 228.2, above this. Markets ADP RB9, ECR RB6, consensus RB7, Underdog RB6 -- four sources inside three ranks, which is as close to agreement as they get. Lands RB6 against the stated RB8, two ahead, on a board that moved rather than on any change here. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.