Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Saquon Barkley

PHI

RB7 · overall #18 · tier 2 · age 29

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Projected points

206

13.3/gm

Value over replacement

100

repl 110

Range

162–250

sd 44

Week

14.7

vs WAS

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
52
Carries
226
Receptions
39
Rec yards
286
Rush yards
1070
Rush TD
8.3
Rec TD
1.5
Total TD
9.7
Games projected
15.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.1
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.895
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
61.3
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+1.42
OL pass protection
+1.23
OL continuity
93%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.89
Scheme creativity
+0.20
Play action / motion
23% / 46%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
14
Effective contributors
1.61
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.31

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
WAS,TEN,CHI
Window matchup
+0.39
Opponents after
LA,JAX,CAR
After matchup
+0.01
Flip edge
+0.38
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.25

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

232.3

Per game

14.52

17-gm pace

247

Best / worst

33.4 / 5.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
118.41860154240
217.4228812260
39.5184605490
417.41943144310
517.8630033581
68.7125803290
75.21844011-20
833.414150154241
1013.12260033410
1110.0268302170
1212.41022087520
135.6135602000
1418.22012212000
1517.22278132140
1621.22113212000
176.8196800000