Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Riley Leonard

IND

QB59 · overall #587 · tier – · age 24

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Projected points

34

4.3/gm

Value over replacement

-90

repl 250

Range

0–84

sd 50

Week

1.0

@ WAS

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
97
Pass yards
711
Pass TD
4.3
Carries
4
Rush yards
35
Rush TD
0.4
Games projected
7.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
6.2
Games of history
5
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.69
OL pass protection
+0.76
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
WAS,PIT,TEN
Window matchup
+0.80
Opponents after
MIN,JAX,DAL
After matchup
+0.09
Flip edge
+0.71
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.36

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

5

Points

31.0

Per game

6.20

17-gm pace

105

Best / worst

22.6 / -2.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
80.1QB3102000110
1410.3QB21182914501251
160.0QB3801000000
17-2.0QB3701001000
1822.6QB42134270213211