Quentin Johnston

Cut to WR43 on 22 Aug against ADP 43 and ECR 48. Expanded 3 Sep. 118.0 over 14.3 games is 8.25/g against his own 8.22 half-PPR/g -- level with it, not a cut. Sleeper projects 134.9, above this. THE MARKETS DO NOT AGREE WITH EACH OTHER HERE, which is worth recording before anyone treats a gap as evidence: ADP 40, ECR 38, consensus 49, Underdog 34 -- a 15-rank spread. Lands WR50 against the stated WR43, and that drift is 4.9 points of projection, inside the band noise this file warns about in the WR40s. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers. AND IT REVERSED THIS ROW'S CLAIM: on the correct basis the projection is at or ABOVE his own rate, not below it. The row's argument is unaffected -- it rested on the market anchors and the stated rank -- but the supporting sentence said the opposite of the truth.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.