WR
Puka Nacua
LAWR5 · overall #17 · tier 2 · age 25
Projected points
168
16.6/gm
Value over replacement
93
repl 119
Range
98–238
sd 70
Week
8.4
@ PHI
The take
written by hand
10.7 targets a game, the highest on my board. The only reason he isn't further clear of the field is 13.8 games.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 105
- Carries
- 7
- Receptions
- 71
- Rec yards
- 966
- Rush yards
- 45
- Rush TD
- 0.3
- Rec TD
- 5.3
- Total TD
- 5.6
- Games projected
- 10.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 22.0
- Games of history
- 44
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.6
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.74
- OL pass protection
- +0.72
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 69%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.61
- Scheme creativity
- +1.28
- Play action / motion
- 32% / 70%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 61
- Effective contributors
- 3.17
- Top player's share
- 45%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.74
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- PHI,BUF,ARI
- Window matchup
- -0.23
- Opponents after
- LV,LAC,WAS
- After matchup
- +0.35
- Flip edge
- -0.59
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.01
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
16
Points
310.5
Per game
19.41
17-gm pace
330
Best / worst
40.5 / 3.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.1 | WR7 | 11 | 10 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 23.6 | WR6 | 9 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 45 |
| 3 | 17.3 | WR8 | 15 | 11 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | 29.5 | WR1 | 15 | 13 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 19.5 | WR7 | 12 | 10 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 3.8 | WR63 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 19.3 | WR5 | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | 14.9 | WR16 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 10.8 | WR18 | 8 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | 13.2 | WR16 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 10.2 | WR25 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 32.2 | WR1 | 11 | 7 | 167 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 23.4 | WR2 | 11 | 9 | 181 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | 40.5 | WR1 | 16 | 12 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 13.2 | WR13 | 10 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 21.0 | WR3 | 11 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 24 |