QB
Patrick Mahomes
KCQB16 · overall #80 · tier 5 · age 30
Projected points
238
19.2/gm
Value over replacement
36
repl 261
Range
200–277
sd 39
Week
14.8
vs DEN
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 464
- Pass yards
- 3326
- Pass TD
- 21.7
- Carries
- 49
- Rush yards
- 245
- Rush TD
- 2.1
- Games projected
- 12.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 19.8
- Games of history
- 63
- Age multiplier
- 0.981
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.7
- Projected plays / game
- 63.3
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- +0.25
- OL pass protection
- +0.05
- OL continuity
- 87%
- 2TE rate
- 41%
- 3WR rate
- 56%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.61
- Scheme creativity
- +0.01
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 55%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- DEN,IND,MIA
- Window matchup
- +0.82
- Opponents after
- LV,LAC
- After matchup
- -0.18
- Flip edge
- +1.00
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.22
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
14
Points
285.2
Per game
20.37
17-gm pace
346
Best / worst
31.5 / 5.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26.0 | 24 | 39 | 258 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| 2 | 22.1 | 16 | 29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| 3 | 13.2 | 22 | 37 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 4 | 27.3 | 25 | 37 | 270 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 5 | 26.7 | 29 | 41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| 6 | 31.5 | 22 | 30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 |
| 7 | 26.2 | 26 | 35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| 8 | 23.0 | 25 | 34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| 9 | 10.5 | 15 | 34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 | 13.3 | 29 | 45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | 17.1 | 29 | 46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| 13 | 29.4 | 23 | 34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| 14 | 5.8 | 14 | 33 | 160 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| 15 | 13.1 | 16 | 28 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |