Pat Freiermuth

Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read. HIS RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM -- 7.12/g against a decay-0.65 weighted 6.80 is +0.32, well inside how the model treats everyone. It is the TARGETS, and it is the incoming-competition defect seen from the incumbent's side rather than the newcomer's. He is projected 4.90 targets a game against 4.59 in 2024 and 3.60 in 2025 -- above BOTH recent seasons -- on a Pittsburgh team that has since added MICHAEL PITTMAN, who takes 6.82 targets a game and 20.9% of the room. A share earned before a new mouth arrived is carried forward untouched. apply_incoming_competition exists for exactly this, is measured at -0.172 against the share ratio, and is NOT called because it failed its held-out test, so an override is the only lever. Third instance today after Wan'Dale Robinson and Jauan Jennings, who are the same fact from the newcomer's end. TE23, against ECR TE24. HE HAS NO ADP AT ALL, which is why nothing caught him: the audit's market check required an ADP rank, and 56 of 230 draftable players do not have one. That gap is fixed in the same commit.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.