Parker Washington
JAXWR33 · overall #85 · tier 7 · age 24
Projected points
127
9.1/gm
Value over replacement
23
repl 119
Range
78–176
sd 49
Week
11.5
@ CIN
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Raised 22 Aug at Matt's read, and this is the THIRD time it has come up -- the audit flagged him at 24 ranks from ADP, I twice called it a live 'do you believe the breakout' question and left it, and I had lifted his 6 Aug market pin the same morning. Leaving a flagged disagreement unresolved twice is not neutrality, it is a decision taken by default. SAME MECHANISM AS BLAKE CORUM, opposite end of the same file. His seasons run 4.15/g, 5.21, then 8.98 on 5.94 targets across a full 16 games, and USAGE_DECAY_BY_POS['WR'] of 0.50 blends a career that is two-thirds a player he has outgrown -- the model's 7.71 is +0.17 against that blend, so it is CALIBRATED ON THE WRONG POPULATION rather than miscalibrated. A career blend describes neither a collapse nor an ascent. 127.2 over 14.0 games = 9.09/g, within a rounding step of the 8.98 he actually ran in 2025 and with no step up invented on top. Lands WR34, level with ADP WR34 and short of ECR WR29 -- the deliberate stopping point, because he is listed depth 2 in a Jacksonville room where Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. both project more targets than he does, and that is a real constraint the 2025 tape does not override.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 89
- Carries
- 4
- Receptions
- 54
- Rec yards
- 700
- Rush yards
- 11
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 4.9
- Total TD
- 4.9
- Games projected
- 14.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 9.9
- Games of history
- 38
- Age multiplier
- 1.044
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 61.3
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -0.20
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- -0.03
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 51%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.41
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CIN,PHI,HOU
- Window matchup
- -0.60
- Opponents after
- IND,BAL
- After matchup
- +0.19
- Flip edge
- -0.79
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.32
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
126.7
Per game
7.92
17-gm pace
135
Best / worst
20.5 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0 | WR115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.6 | WR43 | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | WR58 | 11 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | WR40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 5 | 7.6 | WR34 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 2.9 | WR53 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 6.2 | WR34 | 10 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | 9.0 | WR25 | 9 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 14.9 | WR10 | 7 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
| 11 | 2.0 | WR67 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 13.1 | WR11 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 2.6 | WR62 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 5.3 | WR44 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 20.5 | WR4 | 10 | 6 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 11.0 | WR16 | 10 | 8 | 115 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
| 18 | 14.7 | WR6 | 9 | 5 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 0 |