Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

TE

Mitchell Evans

CAR

TE116 · overall #520 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

31

2.1/gm

Value over replacement

-74

repl 112

Range

9–54

sd 23

Week

2.6

vs DET

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
22
Carries
1
Receptions
16
Rec yards
153
Rush yards
1
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
1.2
Total TD
1.2
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
3.4
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.060
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.33
OL pass protection
+0.21
OL continuity
71%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
-0.67
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
59
Effective contributors
3.10
Top player's share
37%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.71

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
DET,PHI
Window matchup
-0.38
Opponents after
TB,GB,DEN
After matchup
-0.01
Flip edge
-0.37
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.01

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

14

Points

48.2

Per game

3.44

17-gm pace

59

Best / worst

11.3 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
21.9TE441190
31.9TE451190
411.3TE1243231
57.4TE241141
63.1TE3911210
74.4TE3332240
100.0TE551000
114.8TE2822280
120.0TE591000
135.0TE3033200
150.0TE590000
165.3TE3033230
171.6TE512150
181.5TE552150