Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Michael Pittman

PIT

WR47 · overall #110 · tier 9 · age 28

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Projected points

124

8.3/gm

Value over replacement

12

repl 119

Range

43–205

sd 81

Week

5.3

@ CLE

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
96
Carries
0
Receptions
63
Rec yards
697
Rush yards
1
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
3.9
Total TD
3.9
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.4
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
0.908
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.51
OL pass protection
+0.02
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
3.82
Top player's share
42%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CLE,IND,TB
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
NO,CLE
After matchup
+0.25
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.01

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

122.4

Per game

7.20

17-gm pace

122

Best / worst

15.5 / 1.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
114.0WR78680100
24.0WR685440000
313.3WR106673100
410.1WR2110541100
59.9WR206539100
62.0WR733220000
713.8WR139758100
815.5WR49895100
911.5WR16129115000
101.9WR672219000
128.7WR278527100
131.3WR874113000
147.9WR2712979000
152.6WR725326000
163.2WR655432000
171.6WR813216000
181.1WR804211000