Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Mack Hollins

NE

WR115 · overall #264 · tier – · age 33

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Projected points

74

5.1/gm

Value over replacement

-34

repl 119

Range

31–118

sd 43

Week

5.7

@ BUF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
54
Carries
3
Receptions
34
Rec yards
406
Rush yards
21
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
2.3
Total TD
2.3
Games projected
14.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.0
Games of history
60
Age multiplier
0.750
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.38
OL pass protection
-0.39
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.11
Scheme creativity
-0.58
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.05
Opponents after
CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
-0.00
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

14

Points

113.4

Per game

8.10

17-gm pace

138

Best / worst

16.6 / 1.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
11.3WR109213000
27.8WR65218100
36.7WR564427000
47.4WR51114100
64.8WR653228000
77.3WR522249014
815.9WR157789000
92.9WR75229000
1016.6WR20106106000
1110.4WR295464000
125.0WR566230000
135.3WR624323000
158.1WR498441000
1613.9WR249769000