Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Luke McCaffrey

WAS

WR168 · overall #391 · tier – · age 25

← back to rankings

Projected points

44

3.4/gm

Value over replacement

-53

repl 119

Range

16–72

sd 28

Week

1.2

vs IND

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
28
Carries
1
Receptions
18
Rec yards
229
Rush yards
7
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
1.9
Total TD
1.9
Games projected
13.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
4.4
Games of history
22
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.8
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
-0.49
OL pass protection
-0.84
OL continuity
84%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
67%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.19
Scheme creativity
-0.16
Play action / motion
20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.70
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
IND,NYG,SF
Window matchup
-0.05
Opponents after
PHI,LA
After matchup
-0.59
Flip edge
+0.54
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.41

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

9

Points

45.8

Per game

5.09

17-gm pace

87

Best / worst

13.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.0WR118000000
24.4WR751119000
313.1WR203356100
49.1WR293221100
55.5WR582150000
69.8WR251133100
70.0WR103200000
83.9WR613324000
90.0WR97000000