Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Kaleb Johnson

GB

RB116 · overall #382 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

38

3.1/gm

Value over replacement

-52

repl 116

Range

33–43

sd 5

Week

2.0

@ TB

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-01

Raised 1 Sep, and the board had not caught up with the move: he is on GREEN BAY now, listed DEPTH 3, and was still priced RB121 on 3.81 car/g. With Jacobs fourth and hurt that is a real role rather than a camp body. A rate claim, so no games value -- he is healthy and this says nothing about how many weeks he is available. ROOM-CONSTRAINED 1 Sep: overrides run AFTER normalize_team_carries, so writing four in one backfield inflated Green Bay from 29.1 car/g to 37.8, third-highest of 32 against a median of 29.3. Jacobs being hurt moves carries around the room; it does not create them. All four are priced to hold the room near 30. TARGET ADOPTED AT RB108, not the RB80 first written, and the first figure was simply wrong rather than unlucky: RB80 assumed a role the room cannot fund once Lloyd takes 12 and Jacobs comes back. Third in a four-deep backfield is a bench stash, and pricing him as a startable asset would have been the room inflation again in a different costume.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
15
Carries
53
Receptions
11
Rec yards
77
Rush yards
194
Rush TD
0.8
Rec TD
0.0
Total TD
0.8
Games projected
12.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
0.9
Games of history
10
Age multiplier
1.045
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.5
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.62
OL pass protection
-0.44
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.91
Scheme creativity
+0.54
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
35
Effective contributors
2.10
Top player's share
61%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.37

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
TB,CHI,DAL
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
DET,CAR,NE
After matchup
-0.05
Flip edge
+0.14
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.21

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

10

Points

8.8

Per game

0.88

17-gm pace

15

Best / worst

2.3 / -0.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
1-0.2RB951-200000
20.1RB741100000
42.2RB5662201000
61.5RB6161500000
92.3RB511401190
100.3RB662300000
111.5RB6251500000
130.3RB732300000
140.4RB682400000
150.4RB742400000