Kaleb Johnson
GBRB116 · overall #382 · tier – · age 23
Projected points
38
3.1/gm
Value over replacement
-52
repl 116
Range
33–43
sd 5
Week
2.0
@ TB
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-01
Raised 1 Sep, and the board had not caught up with the move: he is on GREEN BAY now, listed DEPTH 3, and was still priced RB121 on 3.81 car/g. With Jacobs fourth and hurt that is a real role rather than a camp body. A rate claim, so no games value -- he is healthy and this says nothing about how many weeks he is available. ROOM-CONSTRAINED 1 Sep: overrides run AFTER normalize_team_carries, so writing four in one backfield inflated Green Bay from 29.1 car/g to 37.8, third-highest of 32 against a median of 29.3. Jacobs being hurt moves carries around the room; it does not create them. All four are priced to hold the room near 30. TARGET ADOPTED AT RB108, not the RB80 first written, and the first figure was simply wrong rather than unlucky: RB80 assumed a role the room cannot fund once Lloyd takes 12 and Jacobs comes back. Third in a four-deep backfield is a bench stash, and pricing him as a startable asset would have been the room inflation again in a different costume.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 15
- Carries
- 53
- Receptions
- 11
- Rec yards
- 77
- Rush yards
- 194
- Rush TD
- 0.8
- Rec TD
- 0.0
- Total TD
- 0.8
- Games projected
- 12.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 0.9
- Games of history
- 10
- Age multiplier
- 1.045
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.1
- Projected plays / game
- 60.5
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- -0.62
- OL pass protection
- -0.44
- OL continuity
- 60%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 60%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- +0.91
- Scheme creativity
- +0.54
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 59%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 35
- Effective contributors
- 2.10
- Top player's share
- 61%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.37
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TB,CHI,DAL
- Window matchup
- +0.09
- Opponents after
- DET,CAR,NE
- After matchup
- -0.05
- Flip edge
- +0.14
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.21
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
10
Points
8.8
Per game
0.88
17-gm pace
15
Best / worst
2.3 / -0.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -0.2 | RB95 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.1 | RB74 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | RB56 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.5 | RB61 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 2.3 | RB51 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.3 | RB66 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 1.5 | RB62 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.3 | RB73 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 0.4 | RB68 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0.4 | RB74 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |