WR
Justin Jefferson
MINWR9 · overall #28 · tier 3 · age 27
Projected points
185
12.8/gm
Value over replacement
81
repl 115
Range
124–246
sd 61
Week
11.4
vs GB
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 128
- Carries
- 1
- Receptions
- 82
- Rec yards
- 1118
- Rush yards
- 5
- Rush TD
- 0.1
- Rec TD
- 6.0
- Total TD
- 6.1
- Games projected
- 14.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.4
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.1
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.03
- OL pass protection
- +0.12
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 27%
- 3WR rate
- 63%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.77
- Scheme creativity
- +0.21
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 56
- Effective contributors
- 2.95
- Top player's share
- 48%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.66
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- GB,CHI,TB
- Window matchup
- -0.23
- Opponents after
- MIA,NO
- After matchup
- +0.70
- Flip edge
- -0.93
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.66
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
117.5
Per game
6.91
17-gm pace
118
Best / worst
12.6 / 0.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.8 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 12.6 | 11 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 12.3 | 11 | 7 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 7.9 | 10 | 5 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 7.4 | 11 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 10.7 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 3.7 | 12 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 6.1 | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 4.8 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 2.2 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 8.5 | 8 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 3.0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 10.4 | 11 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 3 |