QB
Justin Herbert
LACQB13 · overall #121 · tier 4 · age 28
Projected points
252
17.1/gm
Value over replacement
11
repl 261
Range
214–291
sd 39
Week
18.9
vs ARI
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 484
- Pass yards
- 3605
- Pass TD
- 21.6
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yards
- 271
- Rush TD
- 1.7
- Games projected
- 14.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.6
- Games of history
- 63
- Age multiplier
- 1.012
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.4
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.46
- OL pass protection
- +0.58
- OL continuity
- 37%
- 2TE rate
- 16%
- 3WR rate
- 71%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.07
- Scheme creativity
- +0.88
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- ARI,LV,BUF
- Window matchup
- +0.76
- Opponents after
- SEA,DEN,KC
- After matchup
- -0.69
- Flip edge
- +1.45
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.06
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
286.9
Per game
17.93
17-gm pace
305
Best / worst
30.2 / 3.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27.9 | 25 | 34 | 318 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| 2 | 18.8 | 19 | 27 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| 3 | 14.6 | 28 | 47 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | 12.5 | 23 | 41 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| 5 | 14.6 | 22 | 29 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| 6 | 18.8 | 29 | 38 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | 27.9 | 37 | 55 | 420 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| 8 | 25.3 | 18 | 25 | 227 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| 9 | 27.7 | 19 | 29 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| 10 | 14.7 | 20 | 33 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.3 | 10 | 18 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.8 | 15 | 20 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.2 | 12 | 26 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| 15 | 10.4 | 19 | 29 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 30.2 | 23 | 29 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| 17 | 15.1 | 21 | 32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 0 |