Justin Herbert
LACQB10 · overall #79 · tier 3 · age 28
Projected points
259
17.5/gm
Value over replacement
28
repl 250
Range
220–298
sd 39
Week
11.5
@ SEA
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
RE-STATED 22 Aug. The claim is unchanged and is the 6 Aug one: QB12, conceding the model's native QB8. What changed is that the row no longer delivered it. An override writes an ABSOLUTE season total onto a board that rebuilds four times a day, so the RANK it buys drifts as the field moves around it and nothing re-derives it -- this one had drifted to QB14 against its stated QB12. 258.8 is the total that lands QB12 on the 22 Aug board, solved against the other QBs jointly (six other overrides were lifted the same day, which moved the pool). IT WILL DRIFT AGAIN. fng.board_audit now parses the rank out of this reason and warns on every rebuild when the board stops matching it, which is the only reason re-pricing is worth doing rather than lifting the row.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 496
- Pass yards
- 3692
- Pass TD
- 22.3
- Carries
- 63
- Rush yards
- 280
- Rush TD
- 1.8
- Games projected
- 14.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.6
- Games of history
- 63
- Age multiplier
- 1.012
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.4
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.45
- OL pass protection
- +0.57
- OL continuity
- 37%
- 2TE rate
- 16%
- 3WR rate
- 71%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- -0.07
- Scheme creativity
- +0.88
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- SEA,DEN,KC
- Window matchup
- -0.85
- Opponents after
- LA,HOU
- After matchup
- -0.38
- Flip edge
- -0.47
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.10
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
286.9
Per game
17.93
17-gm pace
305
Best / worst
30.2 / 3.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27.9 | QB5 | 25 | 34 | 318 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| 2 | 18.8 | QB16 | 19 | 27 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| 3 | 14.6 | QB13 | 28 | 47 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | 12.5 | QB23 | 23 | 41 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| 5 | 14.6 | QB23 | 22 | 29 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| 6 | 18.8 | QB13 | 29 | 38 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | 27.9 | QB3 | 37 | 55 | 420 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| 8 | 25.3 | QB4 | 18 | 25 | 227 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| 9 | 27.7 | QB4 | 19 | 29 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| 10 | 14.7 | QB17 | 20 | 33 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 | 3.3 | QB31 | 10 | 18 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.8 | QB21 | 15 | 20 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | 12.2 | QB18 | 12 | 26 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| 15 | 10.4 | QB27 | 19 | 29 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 30.2 | QB4 | 23 | 29 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| 17 | 15.1 | QB15 | 21 | 32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 0 |