Fourth and Inches

Joe Burrow

CIN

QB4 · overall #43 · tier 2 · age 29

← back to rankings

Projected points

273

21.3/gm

Value over replacement

repl 261

Range

233–313

sd 40

Week

19.5

vs TB

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Pass attempts: 553
Pass yards: 3721
Pass TD: 29.5
Carries: 44
Rush yards: 165
Rush TD: 1.6
Games projected: 12.8
Observed pts/gm (history): 19.4
Games of history: 51
Age multiplier: 1.000
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 60.9
Projected pass rate: 60%
OL run block: -0.72
OL pass protection: -1.37
OL continuity: 99%
2TE rate: 40%
3WR rate: 58%
1st-down pass rate: 54%
Run friendly: -1.75
Scheme creativity: -0.69
Play action / motion: 17% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: settled
Ambiguity score: 24
Effective contributors: –
Top player's share: –
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 1-3
Window opponents: TB,HOU,PIT
Window matchup: +0.38
Opponents after: JAX,MIA
After matchup: +0.26
Flip edge: +0.12
Buy basis: season average
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.52

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

134.5

Per game

16.81

17-gm pace

286

Best / worst

29.0 / 5.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Cmp	Att	Pa Yds	Pa TD	INT	Ru Att	Ru Yds
1	8.8	14	23	113	1	0	2	3
2	7.0	7	13	76	1	0	0	0
13	19.2	24	46	261	2	0	3	8
14	23.4	25	36	284	4	2	0	0
15	5.5	25	39	225	0	2	2	5
16	29.0	25	32	309	4	0	2	6
17	20.4	24	31	305	2	0	3	2
18	21.1	29	39	236	3	1	2	17