Jayden Reed
GBWR39 · overall #94 · tier 8 · age 26
Projected points
109
9.1/gm
Value over replacement
19
repl 119
Range
50–167
sd 59
Week
2.5
@ TB
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read, as the other half of the Green Bay ordering. The board had him WR33 and Christian Watson WR37 -- Reed ABOVE the man listed in front of him -- while both markets have it firmly the other way, Watson WR28/WR23 against Reed WR44/WR43. The rate is not the problem: 9.20/g against a decay-weighted 9.75 is a 0.55 discount, in line with how the model treats Watson. What carries him is his OLDER seasons. At the WR decay of 0.50 his 2023 (11.45/g over 16 games) and 2024 (10.09 over 17) outweigh a 2025 that was five games at 7.80 before injury, so the blend describes the player he was in Green Bay's previous offence rather than the depth-2 slot man he is now. WR43, level with both markets.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 62
- Carries
- 9
- Receptions
- 41
- Rec yards
- 548
- Rush yards
- 59
- Rush TD
- 0.5
- Rec TD
- 4.2
- Total TD
- 4.7
- Games projected
- 12.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.5
- Games of history
- 38
- Age multiplier
- 1.009
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.1
- Projected plays / game
- 60.5
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- -0.62
- OL pass protection
- -0.44
- OL continuity
- 60%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 60%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- +0.91
- Scheme creativity
- +0.54
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 59%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 5.34
- Top player's share
- 30%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TB,CHI,DAL
- Window matchup
- +0.25
- Opponents after
- DET,CAR,NE
- After matchup
- +0.05
- Flip edge
- +0.20
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.05
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
5
Points
29.5
Per game
5.90
17-gm pace
100
Best / worst
10.5 / 4.1
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.5 | WR18 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 5.3 | WR37 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 22 |
| 15 | 5.5 | WR42 | 6 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 4.1 | WR53 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | 4.1 | WR44 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 |