Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Jayden Reed

GB

WR46 · overall #93 · tier 8 · age 26

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Projected points

118

9.2/gm

Value over replacement

26

repl 115

Range

70–167

sd 48

Week

6.7

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
67
Carries
10
Receptions
45
Rec yards
593
Rush yards
65
Rush TD
0.5
Rec TD
4.6
Total TD
5.1
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.5
Games of history
38
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.4
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.65
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
64%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.90
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIN,NYJ,ATL
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
TB,CHI,DAL
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

5

Points

39.0

Per game

7.80

17-gm pace

133

Best / worst

12.0 / 5.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
112.05345100
147.344310222
158.06555000
165.63335016
176.14441000