WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEAWR4 · overall #7 · tier 1 · age 24
Projected points
233
15.3/gm
Value over replacement
124
repl 115
Range
182–285
sd 51
Week
15.7
vs NE
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 155
- Carries
- 5
- Receptions
- 104
- Rec yards
- 1331
- Rush yards
- 23
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 8.0
- Total TD
- 8.0
- Games projected
- 15.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.5
- Games of history
- 51
- Age multiplier
- 1.044
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.2
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.11
- OL pass protection
- +0.37
- OL continuity
- 100%
- 2TE rate
- 34%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 50%
- Run friendly
- +0.17
- Scheme creativity
- -0.21
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 48
- Effective contributors
- 2.58
- Top player's share
- 56%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.54
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- NE,ARI,WAS
- Window matchup
- +1.28
- Opponents after
- LAC,SF,DEN
- After matchup
- -0.51
- Flip edge
- +1.79
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.37
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
240.9
Per game
14.17
17-gm pace
241
Best / worst
29.1 / 2.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.4 | 13 | 9 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 15.6 | 6 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 9.0 | 5 | 4 | 79 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | 19.2 | 9 | 8 | 132 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 22.2 | 13 | 8 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 18.3 | 14 | 8 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 14.0 | 9 | 8 | 129 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | 15.3 | 6 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 11.6 | 12 | 9 | 105 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | 29.1 | 10 | 8 | 167 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 21.1 | 10 | 7 | 92 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 15 | 11.3 | 9 | 7 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 15.6 | 13 | 8 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 7.2 | 12 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 8.4 | 8 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 |