Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

WR4 · overall #7 · tier 1 · age 24

← back to rankings

Projected points

233

15.3/gm

Value over replacement

124

repl 115

Range

182–285

sd 51

Week

15.7

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
155
Carries
5
Receptions
104
Rec yards
1331
Rush yards
23
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
8.0
Total TD
8.0
Games projected
15.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.5
Games of history
51
Age multiplier
1.044
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.2
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.11
OL pass protection
+0.37
OL continuity
100%
2TE rate
34%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
50%
Run friendly
+0.17
Scheme creativity
-0.21
Play action / motion
23% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
48
Effective contributors
2.58
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.54

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NE,ARI,WAS
Window matchup
+1.28
Opponents after
LAC,SF,DEN
After matchup
-0.51
Flip edge
+1.79
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.37

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

359.9

Per game

21.17

17-gm pace

360

Best / worst

37.1 / 4.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
119.4139124000
218.3108103000
320.66596100
413.054790311
527.298132100
630.2138162100
726.3148123100
922.0981290111
1020.36593100
1120.61291050111
1237.1108167214
134.34223000
1428.11079221-1
1518.397113000
1623.613896100
1716.212972000
1814.48684000