Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Jauan Jennings

MIN

WR57 · overall #127 · tier 9 · age 29

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Projected points

109

7.7/gm

Value over replacement

4

repl 119

Range

42–176

sd 67

Week

3.5

vs MIA

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-08-22

Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read, and it is the SAME DEFECT as Wan'Dale Robinson earlier today -- a target share earned on one roster applied to another as though it were a property of the player. HIS RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM: 8.08/g against a decay-weighted 9.41 means the model is already 1.33 BELOW his own history. It is the VOLUME. He ran 7.53 targets a game in San Francisco in 2024 and 6.00 in 2025, and the board carries 5.53 into MINNESOTA, where he is listed depth 3 behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with T.J. Hockenson also in the room. That makes him the SECOND-MOST TARGETED PASS CATCHER on a team where he is third on the depth chart -- ahead of the depth-2 man, which is the tell. apply_incoming_competition exists for exactly this and is not called, having failed its held-out test, so an override is the only lever. Both markets price the move: ADP WR65, ECR WR55. WR57 sits between them, nearer ECR, matching how Wan'Dale was placed. THIRD instance today after Wan'Dale and, in the other direction, Rico Dowdle -- the depth chart and a carried-over share disagreeing, with nothing in the model to arbitrate.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
74
Carries
3
Receptions
46
Rec yards
579
Rush yards
13
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
4.5
Total TD
4.5
Games projected
14.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.9
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.1
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.05
OL pass protection
+0.10
OL continuity
76%
2TE rate
27%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.76
Scheme creativity
+0.22
Play action / motion
26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
56
Effective contributors
2.95
Top player's share
48%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.66

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
MIA,NO
Window matchup
+0.75
Opponents after
IND,DET,BUF
After matchup
+0.39
Flip edge
+0.36
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.78

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

15

Points

118.3

Per game

7.89

17-gm pace

134

Best / worst

15.7 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
11.6WR825216000
214.9WR1110589100
44.4WR494224000
60.7WR91317000
73.1WR587431000
84.5WR487445000
910.1WR215441100
1011.1WR219671100
115.4WR366454000
1210.1WR187541100
139.9WR216439100
1515.7WR85337200
1613.1WR146571100
1710.2WR194242100
183.5WR456435000