Jauan Jennings
MINWR57 · overall #127 · tier 9 · age 29
Projected points
109
7.7/gm
Value over replacement
4
repl 119
Range
42–176
sd 67
Week
3.5
vs MIA
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read, and it is the SAME DEFECT as Wan'Dale Robinson earlier today -- a target share earned on one roster applied to another as though it were a property of the player. HIS RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM: 8.08/g against a decay-weighted 9.41 means the model is already 1.33 BELOW his own history. It is the VOLUME. He ran 7.53 targets a game in San Francisco in 2024 and 6.00 in 2025, and the board carries 5.53 into MINNESOTA, where he is listed depth 3 behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with T.J. Hockenson also in the room. That makes him the SECOND-MOST TARGETED PASS CATCHER on a team where he is third on the depth chart -- ahead of the depth-2 man, which is the tell. apply_incoming_competition exists for exactly this and is not called, having failed its held-out test, so an override is the only lever. Both markets price the move: ADP WR65, ECR WR55. WR57 sits between them, nearer ECR, matching how Wan'Dale was placed. THIRD instance today after Wan'Dale and, in the other direction, Rico Dowdle -- the depth chart and a carried-over share disagreeing, with nothing in the model to arbitrate.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 74
- Carries
- 3
- Receptions
- 46
- Rec yards
- 579
- Rush yards
- 13
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 4.5
- Total TD
- 4.5
- Games projected
- 14.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 10.9
- Games of history
- 59
- Age multiplier
- 0.876
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.1
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.05
- OL pass protection
- +0.10
- OL continuity
- 76%
- 2TE rate
- 27%
- 3WR rate
- 63%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.76
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 56
- Effective contributors
- 2.95
- Top player's share
- 48%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.66
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIA,NO
- Window matchup
- +0.75
- Opponents after
- IND,DET,BUF
- After matchup
- +0.39
- Flip edge
- +0.36
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.78
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
15
Points
118.3
Per game
7.89
17-gm pace
134
Best / worst
15.7 / 0.7
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.6 | WR82 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.9 | WR11 | 10 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | WR49 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.7 | WR91 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 3.1 | WR58 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 4.5 | WR48 | 7 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 10.1 | WR21 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 11.1 | WR21 | 9 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.4 | WR36 | 6 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 10.1 | WR18 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 9.9 | WR21 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 15.7 | WR8 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 13.1 | WR14 | 6 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 10.2 | WR19 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 3.5 | WR45 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 |