RB
James Cook
BUFRB10 · overall #14 · tier 3 · age 27
Projected points
205
13.7/gm
Value over replacement
96
repl 116
Range
162–247
sd 43
Week
16.5
vs NE
The take
written by hand
A slight fade. 13.8 carries and 2.7 targets is the thinnest usage of any back I have in the top ten, and Buffalo has never fed him like a workhorse.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 40
- Carries
- 204
- Receptions
- 32
- Rec yards
- 275
- Rush yards
- 1018
- Rush TD
- 8.3
- Rec TD
- 1.7
- Total TD
- 9.9
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 16.3
- Games of history
- 66
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.1
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.32
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 78%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.97
- Scheme creativity
- +0.23
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 8
- Effective contributors
- 1.73
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.25
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NE,LA,LV
- Window matchup
- +0.49
- Opponents after
- BAL,MIN
- After matchup
- -0.52
- Flip edge
- +1.02
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.26
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
269.2
Per game
15.84
17-gm pace
269
Best / worst
33.6 / 1.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16.2 | RB4 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| 2 | 25.5 | RB2 | 21 | 132 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 | 17.8 | RB7 | 19 | 108 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| 4 | 19.5 | RB10 | 22 | 117 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| 5 | 4.9 | RB34 | 15 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 8.7 | RB16 | 17 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 33.6 | RB2 | 19 | 216 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 12.5 | RB8 | 27 | 114 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 | 5.7 | RB36 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| 11 | 17.4 | RB8 | 16 | 48 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| 12 | 18.9 | RB5 | 17 | 116 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 | 15.7 | RB10 | 32 | 144 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| 14 | 9.1 | RB24 | 18 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| 15 | 29.1 | RB1 | 22 | 107 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | 25.4 | RB5 | 16 | 117 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 | 7.7 | RB23 | 20 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | 1.5 | RB64 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |