WR
Jalen Tolbert
MIAWR136 · overall #313 · tier – · age 27
Projected points
61
4.4/gm
Value over replacement
-41
repl 119
Range
0–126
sd 65
Week
1.7
@ MIN
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 42
- Carries
- 2
- Receptions
- 26
- Rec yards
- 319
- Rush yards
- 9
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 1.9
- Total TD
- 1.9
- Games projected
- 13.7
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 5.6
- Games of history
- 46
- Age multiplier
- 0.939
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.6
- Projected plays / game
- 60.1
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.09
- OL pass protection
- -0.47
- OL continuity
- 69%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 46%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 42%
- Run friendly
- -0.06
- Scheme creativity
- +1.42
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 73%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, committee
- Ambiguity score
- 98
- Effective contributors
- 3.82
- Top player's share
- 41%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 2.55
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- MIN,CIN
- Window matchup
- -1.52
- Opponents after
- NYJ,NE,DET
- After matchup
- +0.40
- Flip edge
- -1.91
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.70
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
12
Points
28.3
Per game
2.36
17-gm pace
40
Best / worst
10.7 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0 | WR115 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.6 | WR97 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | WR45 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 6.1 | WR38 | 6 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | WR100 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.8 | WR88 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 1.6 | WR77 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 10.7 | WR14 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.0 | WR104 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 0.0 | WR108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 3.1 | WR60 | 8 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.0 | WR108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |